瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2300 in the short term [7] - This week, the port methanol market mainly declined, and the inland methanol price continued to fall. The market sentiment was weak due to pre - holiday inventory clearance and a weak macro - environment. As the de - stocking nears the end, market trading has become light, and downstream buyers are on the sidelines [8] - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. Before the long holiday, upstream factories continue to clear inventory/pre - sell, and downstream buyers stock up steadily before the festival. Inland enterprise inventories continue to decline. Port inventories in the Yangtze River Delta decreased this week, while those in South China increased. In the short term, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to increase, and port inventories may accumulate [8] - This week, the operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins increased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week. In the short term, as the loads of previously restarted olefin plants gradually increase, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2180 - 2300 range in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2200 - 2280 yuan/ton. Inland prices continued to fall, with the price in Erdos in the north line fluctuating between 1785 - 1798 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2145 - 2160 yuan/ton. Enterprises focused on inventory clearance before the holiday, and the market sentiment was weak [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production is increasing. Inland inventories are decreasing, while port inventories may accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 3.28% [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 6, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 29 [16] - Position analysis: As of February 6, there were 7082 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 71 from last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of February 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1797.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 407.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton from last week [30] - Foreign prices: As of February 5, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 262 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from last week [36] - Basis: As of February 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [40] 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of February 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of February 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.52 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars per million British thermal units from last week [44] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and operating rate: As of February 4, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15% [47] - Inventory: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.05%. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 64,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 3,700 tons [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 5, the methanol import profit was - 17.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week, leading to an increase in the operating rate [59] - Profit: As of February 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [62]