建信期货农产品周度报告-20260206

1. Reported Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural product industry, dated February 6, 2026 [1] 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market is weaker than the overseas market this week. The 05 contract is priced by imported Brazilian soybeans, and the pressure of its bumper harvest is approaching. The domestic market has limited bullish factors, and the rebound is weak. It is recommended to gradually reduce positions for the Spring Festival holiday [9] 2.2. Eggs - This week, egg spot prices have reached a peak and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot prices are in a seasonal decline. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is still a game about the degree of inventory reduction. It is recommended to roll and go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 2.3. Sugar - The raw sugar index fluctuates around the 14 - cent mark. Technically, the 10 - day and 10 - week moving averages suppress price rebounds. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with the 60 - day moving average and the weekly Bollinger middle - band suppressing prices. The market is currently treated as oscillating weakly [68][69] 2.4. Cotton - The overseas cotton market maintains a weak pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The USDA monthly report is relatively bullish. The domestic market should pay attention to the planting intentions for the 2026/27 season and the actual reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area after the festival [90] 2.5. Corn - The spot price of corn is narrowly weak. The supply may increase in the first half of February and decrease in the second half due to the holiday. Demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is expected to pick up after the festival. The overall supply - demand relationship may be tight, and the price is expected to be strong [156] 2.6. Hogs - The spot price of hogs continues to fall this week. In the long - term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase slightly. Before the festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [202] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soybean meal are slightly weaker than a week ago. Overseas futures of US soybeans are strong this week, mainly due to the news of potential additional Chinese purchases. The domestic market is weaker, and it is recommended to reduce positions for the festival [7][8][9] 3.1.2. Core Points - Soybean Planting: The 2025/26 USDA report shows that US soybean production and end - of - season inventory increase, and the supply - demand relationship turns looser. In South America, Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and Argentina's weather is expected to improve. The report is generally bearish [11] - US Soybean Exports: As of January 29, the weekly shipment volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increases year - on - year, but the net sales volume decreases. Future purchases by China need to be monitored [15] - Domestic Soybean Imports and Pressing: Pressing profits are mostly negative. The actual pressing volume and operating rate increase slightly this week but are expected to decline in the near future. The import volume of soybeans shows seasonal changes, and the port inventory will gradually decline [27][29] - Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increases this week. Transactions are active in January due to pre - festival stocking and concerns about future supply [36] - Basis and Inter - month Spreads: The 05 - contract basis of soybean meal narrows slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread also narrows. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [40][41] - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of February 5, 2026, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [43] 3.2. Eggs 3.2.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Egg spot prices fall rapidly this week. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of inventory reduction, and it is recommended to go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 3.2.2. Data Summary - Inventory and Replenishment: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period of history, and the replenishment momentum slows down, which may reduce the medium - term inventory pressure [49] - Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit: Egg spot prices fall, feed costs remain stable, and breeding profits decline [56] - Culled Hens: The culling volume is stable with a slight decline, the culling age is slightly delayed, and the price is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [58] - Demand, Inventory, and Hog Prices: Egg sales are at a relatively high level in the same period of history, inventory is at a moderately high level, and hog prices are at a relatively low level in the same period of history [63] 3.3. Sugar - Futures Market: The raw sugar index fluctuates around 14 cents, and the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with technical resistance [68][69] - Spot Market: Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong change little. The basis narrows, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthens [71][75] - Brazilian Sugar Production: In the second half of December 2025, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreases year - on - year, and the ethanol production increases [77] - Import Profit and Exchange Rate: The import processing profit of raw sugar increases slightly. The Brazilian real and Thai baht depreciate against the US dollar [83][85] 3.4. Cotton 3.4.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Overseas cotton markets are weak, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The USDA report is bullish, and domestic policies emphasize the stability of the cotton industry. The market is affected by macro - factors and is expected to oscillate narrowly before the festival [88][90] 3.4.2. Core Points - Main Cotton - producing Countries: The USDA January report shows that the global cotton supply - demand relationship improves slightly, with a decrease in ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - sales ratio [91] - US Cotton Exports: As of January 29, the net signing and shipment of US cotton in the 2025/2026 season show different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volumes are different from the same period last year [96] - Textile Enterprises: The inventory and load indexes of textile enterprises change slightly, with a general downward trend in load [98] - Basis and Inter - month Spreads: The spot basis of cotton increases, and the 5 - 9 spread decreases [110] - CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: Non - commercial net positions of cotton decrease, and the number of domestic registered warehouse receipts increases [113] 3.5. Corn 3.5.1. Market Review - Corn spot prices are narrowly weak. Futures prices decline slightly. Different regions have different price trends [116] 3.5.2. Fundamental Analysis - Corn Supply: The grain - selling progress accelerates this week, and the port inventory increases [118][119] - Domestic Substitutes: Wheat prices first rise and then stabilize, with a price difference from corn [122] - Imported Substitute Grains: The import volume of grains in 2025 shows different changes. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume may increase in the future [124][136] - Feed Demand: The total output of industrial feed in 2025 increases. The inventory of feed enterprises increases slightly, and the feed demand is expected to continue to grow slightly [138][141] - Deep - processing Demand: The operating rate and output of the starch industry decline, and the processing profit of starch enterprises is mostly negative. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increases [145][146] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The 2025/26 production of Chinese corn is expected to increase, and the consumption is also expected to rise. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [153] 3.5.3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply - demand relationship of corn is expected to be tight, with spot prices expected to be strong and futures prices expected to rebound after a decline. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors reduce long positions moderately and buy on dips [156][157] 3.6. Hogs 3.6.1. Market Review - Hog spot prices continue to fall, and futures prices oscillate slightly higher. The supply from large - scale farms increases, and the demand from slaughterhouses recovers slightly [159][160] 3.6.2. Fundamental Overview - Long - term Supply: The price of binary sows is stable. The inventory of breeding sows shows different trends according to different data sources, and the future supply of hogs is expected to change accordingly [163][164] - Medium - term Supply: The price of piglets is stable with a slight decline. The inventory of piglets shows different growth trends in different periods, which affects the future supply of hogs [175][176] - Short - term Supply: The inventory of large hogs decreases, and the proportion of large hogs in stock increases due to factors such as pre - festival demand and second - round fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens decreases [178][179][180] - Current Supply: The actual and planned slaughter volumes of hogs in January and February change, and the average slaughter weight decreases [186][188] - Import Supply: The import volume of pork in 2025 decreases year - on - year [195] - Second - round Fattening Demand: The enthusiasm for second - round fattening weakens at the end of January, and the cost decreases [197] - Slaughter Demand: The operating rate of slaughterhouses increases, and the slaughter volume in 2025 increases significantly [201] 3.6.3. Future Outlook - Before the festival, the supply and demand of hogs both increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices are also expected to be weak. It is recommended that futures investors short on rallies, and breeding enterprises increase hedging and reduce short positions with slaughter [202][204]