金融期货周报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market is affected by external and precious metal markets, with increased risk preference volatility. In the short term, the index shows a range-bound trend, but the long - term slow - bull pattern remains stable. Before the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, the market is still worth looking forward to. In the short term, safe - haven sectors may be more favored, and in the long run, the relative performance of IF and IC is still optimistic [12][13]. - The bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors in February, and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will actively protect the cross - festival capital, and the market environment is relatively warm. After the festival, the supply pressure will increase, and the long - term bonds may be more advantageous [96]. - The spot freight rate of the shipping market will enter a downward channel after the peak pre - Spring Festival shipping demand. After the festival, it is likely to continue the off - season performance. High capacity restricts the possible rebound, but geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short the 04 contract on rallies and long the 08 contract on dips [119]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index - Market Review: The A - share market had a "good start" at the beginning of the year, but the regulatory authorities took measures to "cool down" the over - heated market. Later, due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman and the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the precious metal and capital markets fell sharply. From February 2 to 6, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume, and large - cap blue - chip stocks performed better [7][8][10]. - Outlook: The nomination of Kevin Warsh has triggered hawkish expectations. Domestically, consumption support policies are expected to accelerate. The proportion of companies with improved earnings is high, but the certainty of the earnings inflection point needs to be verified. The overall market liquidity is at a good level. The A - share market's risk preference fluctuates greatly in the short term, and the index shows a range - bound trend, but the long - term slow - bull pattern is stable [12][13]. - 成交持仓分析: This week, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased overall. The average daily trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 135,600, 63,200, 218,000, and 253,700 lots respectively, with changes of - 27,300, - 12,600, + 5,800, and + 2,200 lots compared with last week. The positions also decreased overall, with the average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM being 302,000, 111,600, 323,700, and 406,000 lots respectively, with changes of - 22,200, - 8,800, - 22,900, and + 6,800 lots compared with last week [14]. - 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析: The basis widened this week. The basis of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 changed from premium to discount. The annualized basis rate also decreased. The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts and between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were mostly negative, and the spreads of some contracts changed compared with the beginning of the week. In terms of cross - variety spreads, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively well [16][25][27]. - 行业板块概况: In the CSI 300, the consumer, industrial, and financial sectors led the rise, while the communication, materials, and information sectors led the decline. In the CSI 500, the real estate, optional, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, and the raw materials, information, and communication sectors led the decline. Among the primary industries, the food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors led the rise, while the non - ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors led the decline [33][38]. - 估值比较: As of February 6, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.0848, 11.6357, 36.9188, and 49.1824 times respectively, and they were at the 81.28%, 83.01%, 87.12%, and 81.53% percentile levels in the past ten years [39]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds - Market Review: The weak PMI in January boosted the bond market on Monday. The central bank's actions such as increasing the purchase of bonds and conducting reverse repurchases affected the bond market. The trading data of treasury bond futures showed different trends in different contracts. The spot yields of treasury bonds mostly declined, and the yields of US bonds also decreased. The capital market was stable, and the central bank protected the cross - festival funds [42][76][86]. - Strategy Performance: In the current - week, futures performed better than spot bonds, with narrowing basis and rising IRR. There is no positive arbitrage space currently. It is recommended to short the basis of TL2603, pay attention to the long - current - quarter and short - next - quarter inter - period strategy, and the flattening strategy of shorting the short - end and longing the long - end [46][49][59]. - Market Analysis: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the market's expectation of easing is not strong. The supply pressure of local bonds is large, but the upward space of interest rates is limited. The bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range in February. Before the Spring Festival, the market environment is relatively warm, and after the festival, the long - term bonds may be more advantageous [96]. - Next - Week Outlook: As the Spring Festival approaches, trading is expected to decline, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate. The central bank is actively protecting the cross - festival funds, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [98]. - Next - Week Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar: A total of 9.055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and buy - out reverse repurchases will mature next week, and no important economic data will be released [100]. 3.3 Shipping Index - Market Review: The EC futures were affected by the decline in commodity futures on Monday, recovered on Tuesday, but fell back in the second half of the week due to the end of the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea by some shipping companies [101]. - 集运市场情况: The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel after the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. Some shipping companies have raised their post - festival quotes, but it is difficult to support the price. In terms of supply, the container capacity in Europe is higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential capacity is also increasing. In terms of demand, the macro - demand in the eurozone has limited improvement, and the demand side has limited support for the shipping price [108][115][116]. - Market Outlook: After the peak pre - Spring Festival shipping demand, the spot freight rate will decline. After the festival, it is likely to continue the off - season performance. High capacity restricts the rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short the 04 contract on rallies and long the 08 contract on dips [119].