建信期货黑色金属周报-20260206

1. Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Investment Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Unilateral Strategies - RB2605: Price at 3077, expected to be volatile and weak. Influenced by factors such as a decline in the weekly output of five major steel products, significant increase in factory and social inventories, large drop in weekly demand, slow resumption of steel production, pressure on steel raw fuel prices, and a decline in steel costs [6]. - HC2605: Price at 3251, expected to be weak. The gap in imported ore arrivals may appear in the next few weeks, and the Indonesian coal export policy is affecting the market. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [6]. - J2605: Price at 1698.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's production quota reduction policy, the loss of coking enterprises has narrowed significantly, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - JM2605: Price at 1138.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's policy, the recent Mongolian coal customs clearance has fluctuated, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - I2605: Price at 760.5, expected to be weak first and then strong. Australian and Brazilian shipments have recovered while arrivals have declined. The output of five major steel products has turned down, and demand has decreased. Steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end [6]. 2.2 Spread Strategies - For cross - period and cross - variety spreads such as RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM, no clear trading directions are given [6]. 3. Core Views - Steel: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, black commodity futures may turn from weak to strong [8][32]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, coke and coking coal futures may enter a new upward cycle [10][54]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [12][85]. 4. Industry Analysis by Category 4.1 Steel 4.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined [13]. - Production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel decreased. The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased significantly [14][17]. - Inventory: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [17][22]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed a narrowing loss [27]. - Profit: The loss of long - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage profit narrowed, while that of short - process steel mills continued to fall [31]. 4.1.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [31][32]. - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 30 yuan/ton [35][36]. 4.2 Coke and Coking Coal 4.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major coke spot markets remained stable, and some coking coal markets declined [38]. - Production: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production increased [38]. - Inventory: Coke inventories in ports, steel enterprises, and coking plants all increased, and the loss of independent coking enterprises narrowed [41]. - Import and Inventory of Coking Coal: In 2025, the import of coking coal decreased. The port coking coal inventory decreased, while that of coking plants and steel enterprises increased [46]. - Production of Raw Coal and Coke: In 2025, the production of raw coal and coke increased [51]. 4.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, they may enter a new upward cycle [53][54]. 4.3 Iron Ore 4.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port declined. The spreads of some high - grade and low - grade ores changed [55]. - Inventory and Shipping: 45 - port iron ore inventory increased, and the daily shipping volume increased. Steel mills' import ore inventory days increased [61]. - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments showed different trends, and the overall shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume is expected to show a trend of low first and high later [69][70]. - Domestic Production: In 2025, domestic iron ore production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased. The production before the Spring Festival is expected to weaken [70]. - Transaction Volume and Cost: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume increased, and the average iron - water cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [73]. - Iron - Water Output and Related Indicators: The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate increased [75]. - Steel Production and Inventory: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [78]. - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight prices and related freight indices decreased [80]. 4.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [85]. - Basis: The basis between the spot price of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the main futures contract is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [86].