瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, affected by the expected liquidity tightening from the new Fed Chair nomination in the US and concerns over the AI industry's limited returns. The trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The bond market may be slightly boosted in the short - term, but the yield decline is limited. The commodity index will show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar index may continue to fluctuate within a range in the medium - term [6] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI declined to the contraction range, with both supply and demand shrinking, and the gap widening. However, the production and operation activity expectation index of manufacturing enterprises and the service business activity expectation index are above the critical point, indicating strong confidence [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - Stock: The CSI 300 fell 1.33%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped 1.74%. A - share major indices declined collectively, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices falling more than 3%. The four stock index futures also weakened. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6] - Bond: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.14BP this week, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12%. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market may be slightly boosted in the short - term, but the yield decline is limited. The recommended strategy is range - bound trading [6] - Commodity: The Wind Commodity Index fell 21.16%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index dropped 8.95%. The US - Iran situation and the strong US dollar affected commodities. The commodity index will show wide - range fluctuations. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6] - Foreign Exchange: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.44%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract dropped 0.48%. The US dollar index continued to rebound. The recommendation is to watch cautiously [6] 3.2 Important News and Events - Domestic: The "14th Five - Year Plan's" first central No. 1 document on rural revitalization was released; President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump; the "Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival 2026" event will be held; China and the UK signed four economic and trade achievement documents [14] - International: US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair; Iran and the US will hold negotiations in Oman; the negotiations among Ukraine, the US and Russia in Abu Dhabi have ended [16] 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - US: The January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value was 52.4; the January ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.6; the January ADP employment was 2.2 million; the initial jobless claims in the week ending January 31 were 231,000 [17] - EU: The January eurozone Manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5; the January CPI annual rate initial value was 1.7%; the December retail sales monthly rate was - 0.5%; the ECB deposit mechanism rate remained at 2% [17] - Other: UK, German, French manufacturing PMI and relevant economic data are provided, as well as the central bank interest rate decisions of the UK and the ECB [17] 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic indicators from Japan, the US, France, China, the UK and the eurozone will be released, including trade balance, wholesale sales monthly rate, unemployment rate, CPI annual rate, etc [78]