跨节流动性宽松，债市震荡走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined. The yields to maturity of 2 - 7Y bonds dropped by about 2 - 3bp, and the yields to maturity of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 2.9 and 3.6bp respectively to 1.80% and 2.22%. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL rising by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.10%, and 0.58% respectively. In the short term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly, but the market's expectations of pre - holiday reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have cooled, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a range. [9][100] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Weekly Data: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased, while the open interests all decreased. The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.10%, and 0.58% respectively. [13][30] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Key News: The "14th Five - Year Plan"'s first central No. 1 document was released, focusing on rural revitalization. The central bank carried out 800 billion yuan of 3 - month repurchase operations and increased the roll - over of 10 billion yuan. There were important phone calls between China and the US leaders, emphasizing issues such as the Taiwan issue. In the US, the government's partial shutdown ended, but the employment market showed weakness, with a significant increase in the number of initial jobless claims and a sharp decline in job vacancies. Iran and the US held nuclear - issue negotiations. [33][34][35] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Price Difference Changes: The yield spread between 10Y and 5Y and the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened; the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y, the spread between TF and TS main contracts, the 10 - year contract inter - period spread, and the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed; the 30 - year contract inter - period spread, the 2 - year contract inter - period spread, and the spread between TF and TS main contracts fluctuated. [43][49][53] - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T - bond futures main contract decreased. [66] - Interest Rate Changes: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell back to around 1.46% and fluctuated. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined, with the 10Y and 30Y yields to maturity falling by about 2.9 and 3.6bp respectively. The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond yield spread narrowed, while the 30 - year treasury bond yield spread widened. [68][73] - Central Bank Open - Market Operations: This week, the central bank conducted 1.0055 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.7615 trillion yuan due, and increased the roll - over of 10 billion yuan in repurchase, resulting in a net withdrawal of 65.6 billion yuan. [79] - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 169.9266 billion yuan, the total repayment was 42.3261 billion yuan, and the net financing was 127.6005 billion yuan. [83] - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9590, with a cumulative increase of 88 basis points this week. The spread between the RMB offshore and on - shore exchange rates narrowed. The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond declined, and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly. [89][92][97] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestic Fundamentals: In January, the prosperity levels of China's manufacturing and service industries both declined, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range, but the industrial structure continued to improve. The profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year - on - year in December, and the annual profits achieved positive growth. The unexpected decline in the January PMI data indicates that the current fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, and the endogenous driving force of the economy needs to be further boosted. [100] - Overseas Situation: The US employment market remains weak, with the number of job vacancies in December dropping to the lowest level since 2020 and the number of layoffs increasing slightly. The market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts have cooled. [100] - Market Outlook: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to maintain a loose liquidity environment. The market risk appetite has declined significantly, and some funds have flowed into the bond market. In the short term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly, but the downward space for yields is limited, and it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a range. [100]