铝类市场周报：逢低备库需求回暖，铝类或将有所支撑-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, with the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants still good. The operating capacity has a slight increase, but the increment is limited due to the industry ceiling. The demand has recovered as downstream processing enterprises stock up before the festival, but it may gradually weaken as the stocking nears the end and the holiday approaches. The industrial inventory accumulates seasonally. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. Alumina - The cost support of alumina weakens as the supply of domestic bauxite becomes sufficient and the purchase demand of alumina plants is weak. The supply is abundant as the smelter production sentiment is driven by the good performance of the alumina disk, and the industrial inventory accumulates slightly. The demand for alumina increases steadily as new electrolytic aluminum production capacity is put into operation, but the increment is limited. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory trading with a light position for the main contract of alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Cast Aluminum - The supply of cast aluminum alloy decreases slightly as recycling aluminum plants gradually enter the shutdown state. The demand improves slightly as downstream die - casting enterprises increase their willingness to purchase at low prices, but the spot market transaction only improves slightly due to the seasonal off - season and stricter environmental protection policies. The supply of cast aluminum is still excessive, and the industrial inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory trading with a light position for the main contract of cast aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. Options Market - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on the increase in volatility [72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply is stable, demand recovers, and industrial inventory accumulates seasonally. Suggest light - position short - term long positions at low prices [6]. - Alumina: Supply is sufficient, demand is stable, and industrial inventory accumulates slightly. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [7]. - Cast Aluminum: Supply decreases slightly, demand improves slightly, and supply is still excessive with high inventory. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movement: As of February 6, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 23,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.61% from January 30; the closing price of LME aluminum was 3,026 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.98% from January 30. The alumina futures price increased by 0.31% to 2,603 yuan/ton, and the cast - aluminum alloy main contract closing price decreased by 3.81% to 21,950 yuan/ton [12][16]. - Ratio and Spread: As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.71, a decrease of 0.13 from January 30. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from January 30; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76,785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,335 yuan/ton from January 30 [13][22]. - Inventory and Position: As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 651,002 lots, a decrease of 12.3% from January 30; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 61,620 lots [19]. - Spot Price: As of February 6, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 23,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% from January 30, with a spot discount of 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained flat compared with January 30, and the national average price of cast - aluminum alloy (ADC12) decreased by 3.29% to 23,550 yuan/ton [25][29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory: As of February 5, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.95% to 492,975 tons; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 10.01% to 216,771 tons; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 7.29% to 796,100 tons. As of February 6, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 7.21% to 155,533 tons; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.28% to 440,650 tons [34]. - Bauxite: The domestic bauxite inventory at nine ports decreased by 370,000 tons. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% month - on - month and 2.02% year - on - year. From January to December, the total import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, an increase of 26.31% year - on - year [37]. - Scrap Aluminum: The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong decreased by 750 yuan/ton week - on - week. In December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the export decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [43]. - Alumina: In December 2025, the alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year - on - year; the total production from January to December was 92.4456 million tons, an increase of 8% year - on - year. The import of alumina decreased by 1.99% month - on - month and increased by 1389.71% year - on - year, and the export increased [46]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year; the total production from January to December was 45.016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year - on - year. The in - production capacity increased by 0.36% month - on - month and 1.66% year - on - year, the total capacity increased by 0.27% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.31% [52]. - Aluminum Products: In December 2025, the aluminum product production was 6.1356 million tons, with no year - on - year change; the total production from January to December was 67.5039 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% year - on - year. The import increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the export increased by 7.7% year - on - year [56]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In December 2025, the built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, with no month - on - month change and an increase of 15.96% year - on - year. The production was 684,000 tons, a decrease of 2.28 month - on - month and 2.53% year - on - year [59]. - Aluminum Alloy: In December 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% year - on - year; the total production from January to December was 19.297 million tons. The import decreased by 11.81% year - on - year, and the export increased by 20.03% year - on - year [62]. - Real Estate: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 20.47% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 23.9% year - on - year [65]. - Infrastructure and Automobile: From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, the automobile sales in China decreased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 2.09% year - on - year [68]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Given that the future volatility of aluminum prices may increase, a double - buying strategy can be used to bet on the increase in volatility [72].