铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20260208

Group 1: Report's Core View - The macro bearish factors dominate the market. The strong US dollar and domestic inventory accumulation suppress copper prices, but the tight supply at the mine end limits the decline. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2][3] - Overseas mine closures and production disruptions intensify, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees are at a historically low level, providing long - term support for copper prices from the raw material side [2] - The growth in copper usage in the global energy transition and artificial intelligence fields provides structural support for copper prices [2] - The Fed's hawkish stance pushes up the US dollar index, and LME inventories have reached an 11 - month high, suppressing copper prices [2] - Downstream enterprises took early holidays before the Spring Festival, resulting in a decline in the copper rod operating rate and low inventory - building demand [2] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data Futures Price and Trading Volume - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45%, a position of 175,306, a weekly decline of 47,628 in position, and a trading volume of 267,263 [4] - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index Weighted is 100,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.49%, a position of 605,490, a weekly decline of 52,403 in position, and a trading volume of 746,409 [4] - The latest price of International Copper is 88,790 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.37%, a position of 5,575, a weekly decline of 885 in position, and a trading volume of 9,542 [4] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 12,855 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.83%, a position of 239,014, a weekly decline of 38,282 in position, and a trading volume of 30,234 [4] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 572.05 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 8.94%, a position of 124,581, a weekly decline of 10,587 in position, and a trading volume of 61,610 [4] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data Spot Price - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 101,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3,045 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 2.92% [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumao is 101,445 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,190 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.16% [8] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 101,070 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,520 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.48% [8] - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 101,260 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,520 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.48% [10] Spot Premium - The latest Shanghai Non - ferrous premium is 40 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 190 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 126.67% [10] - The latest Shanghai Wumao premium is - 105 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 100 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.78% [10] - The latest Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is - 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 105 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 58.33% [10] - The latest Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium is - 55 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 110 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 66.67% [10] - The latest LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is - 77.58 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 16.18 US dollars and a weekly decline rate of 17.26% [10] - The latest LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is - 95.25 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 20.54 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 27.49% [10] Group 4: Copper Advanced Data - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 426.83 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 320.8 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 302.56% [11] - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 50.2 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [11] - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.2278, with a weekly decline of 0.0586 and a weekly decline rate of - 1.37% [11] - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,117.91 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3,513.52 yuan and a weekly decline rate of - 52.98% [11] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt and Inventory - The latest total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 160,172 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,321 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.12% [15] - The latest total International Copper warehouse receipt is 12,667 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,052 tons and a weekly increase rate of 19.33% [15] - The latest SHFE copper inventory is 233,004 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,067 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.13% [15] - The latest LME copper registered warehouse receipt is 160,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 28,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 21.25% [15] - The latest LME copper cancelled warehouse receipt is 19,950 tons, with a weekly decline of 23,650 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 54.24% [15] - The latest LME copper inventory is 180,575 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,500 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.56% [17] - The latest COMEX copper registered warehouse receipt is 358,636 tons, with a weekly increase of 11,787 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.4% [17] - The latest COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipt is 227,793 tons, with a weekly decline of 491 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 0.22% [17] - The latest COMEX copper inventory is 586,429 tons, with a weekly increase of 11,296 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.96% [17] - The latest copper mine port inventory is 52.3 million tons, with a weekly decline of 4.6 million tons and a weekly decline rate of - 8.08% [17] - The latest social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [17] Group 6: Copper Mid - stream Production Data Production Volume - In December 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative production was 14.72 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [19] - In December 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.229 million tons, with a year - on - year decline of 3.4%, and the cumulative production was 24.814 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [19] Capacity Utilization - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 51.1%, with a month - on - month decline of 12.21 and a year - on - year decline of 15.06 [21] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 20.59%, with a month - on - month decline of 3 and a year - on - year decline of 6.9 [21] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.48%, with a month - on - month decline of 1.96 and a year - on - year decline of 9.8 [22] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 56.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.64 and a year - on - year decline of 0.46 [22] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 61.59%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9 and a year - on - year decline of 18.99 [22] Group 7: Copper Element Import Data - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrates was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the cumulative import was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 61,340 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 23%, and the cumulative import was 749,961 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 16% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 258,549 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 30%, and the cumulative import was 3,344,261 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 11% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 238,977 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the cumulative import was 2,342,580 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 21.8%, and the cumulative import was 5,320,000 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 6.4% [24]