策略周报：节前求稳，节后谋进-20260208

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, with a potential shift in market logic after the holiday, as economic recovery and policy expectations may influence bond market sentiment [1][12] - The 10-year government bond yield may drop below 1.80%, with a possible gradual decline in the volatility center from around 1.85% to approximately 1.80% in February [1][12] - If the 10-year government bond yield breaks below 1.80%, it is advisable to consider taking profits near 1.77%, while a rebound to 1.84%-1.85% could present a small-scale buying opportunity [1][12] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing early and rapid spring momentum, but regulatory guidance is leading to a more rational market [2][15] - Due to increased volatility in asset prices, some funds are adopting a more cautious trading approach, and profit-taking intentions are rising [2][15] - It is recommended to consider taking profits or shifting to a more conservative style before the Spring Festival, with potential opportunities in low-valuation sectors like consumption and real estate after the holiday [2][15] Group 3 - The overseas market shows earnings support, but stock volatility risks remain, with approximately 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations [15][26] - Concerns over the "AI" bubble may lead to volatility in the U.S. stock market, especially if labor market data continues to show weakness [15][26] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation figures, will be crucial for market direction [30]