建信期货豆粕日报-20260209

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2988, the opening price was 2998, the highest price was 3016, the lowest price was 2983, the closing price was 2997, with an increase of 9 and a rise - fall rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 41,502, and the open interest was 205,351, a decrease of 18,122. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2730, the opening price was 2737, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2729, the closing price was 2735, with an increase of 5 and a rise - fall rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 637,898, and the open interest was 2,156,556, a decrease of 55,549. For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2696, the opening price was 2700, the highest price was 2710, the lowest price was 2698, the closing price was 2702, with an increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 42,403, and the open interest was 497,245, a decrease of 11,081 [6] - External Market: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1100 cents. The rebound was due to news that after the call between Chinese and US leaders, Trump praised the good relationship with China on social media and revealed that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. However, due to Trump's inconsistent statements, the market priced it cautiously and awaited verification from weekly export data [6] - South American Market: In Brazil, the soybean production is set, and the harvest is accelerating. In the next month, large - scale harvesting is expected, which may put pressure on FOB quotes. In Argentina, the early weather was dry, but the latest forecast shows normal rainfall and cool climate in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for yield recovery [6] Operational Suggestions - Given the volatile weather in Argentina and international trade policies during holidays, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions next week [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued a proposed 45Z rule on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). However, some issues remain unanswered, such as the composition of the revised climate model that may affect fuel eligibility and the implementation of the foreign raw material ban [7] Group 4: Data Overview - USDA Pressing Data: In December, the US soybean pressing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly pressing volume, second only to October 2025 [14] - Crop Expert Forecast: The expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has become drier recently, with insufficient rainfall in the coming weeks. The expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season remains at a record 179 million tons and may be maintained or increased in the future [14]