LPG早报-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].