农产品早报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Near the Spring Festival, market transactions gradually fade, and trade activities are expected to end next week. In the short term, the pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises will support corn prices, with prices expected to fluctuate. In the long term, focus on structural changes, import policies, and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [1]. - Starch: Near the Spring Festival, some enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the industry's overall operating rate declines slightly. In the short term, downstream festival stocking and inventory reduction support strong enterprise quotes. In the long term, the key factor for price trends is the change in downstream consumption rhythm [2]. - Sugar: In the international market, the 25/26 sugar - making season in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have increased production. The actual realization of the production increase in Thailand needs attention. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the price is still based on domestic sugar. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will approach the out - of - quota import cost [3]. - Cotton: The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promotion policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term investment [5]. - Eggs: After the pre - holiday stocking ends, the spot price stops rising and starts to fall. The 05 contract price depends on the chicken culling situation of farmers. Pay attention to the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens to understand farmers' culling mentality [13]. - Apples: Affected by holiday stocking, the inventory in apple - producing areas decreases faster. The overall trading volume of farmers' goods is limited. The price of general - quality farmers' goods is stable or slightly weak, while good - quality goods remain stable [16]. - Pigs: The weekend spot price is weak. Near the Minor New Year, market stocking starts, but the increase in slaughter is limited. The supply of pigs is sufficient. In the short - term, the inventory reduction pressure dominates, and there is still medium - term pressure, with a long - term inflection point support. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn Price Data: From February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, Weifang, and Shekou remained mostly unchanged. The basis decreased by 10, and the import profit decreased by 16 [1]. - Starch Price Data: The prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 23, and the processing profit remained the same [1]. Sugar - Sugar Price Data: From February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, the price in Kunming remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 14,719 [3]. Cotton - Cotton Price Data: From February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25, the import profit increased by 44, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 27 [18]. Eggs - Egg Price Data: From February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, the prices in Hebei and Liaoning remained unchanged, the price in Shandong decreased by 0.30, the price in Henan decreased by 0.10, and the price in Hubei decreased by 0.17. The basis decreased by 221 [12]. Apples - Apple Price Data: From February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00. The national inventory increased by 54.00, Shandong inventory increased by 51.00, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 57.00 [15][16]. Pigs - Pig Price Data: From February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.45, the price in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.20, the price in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.05, the price in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.15, and the price in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.05. The basis decreased by 390.00 [16].