大越期货玻璃早报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market is bearish, with a weak fundamental outlook and an expected short - term trend of fluctuating weakly. The production profit has slightly recovered, cold - repair is less than expected, supply is at a low level, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions [2]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1088 yuan/ton to 1072 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate remained at 944 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 144 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.11% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - Glass production profit: Not detailed in the report. Glass Production Lines and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 211, with an operating rate of 71.86%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [18][20]. Demand Analysis - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Inventory Analysis - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 53.064 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [39]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40].