大越期货沪铜早报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a complex supply - demand and price situation. The supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January suggest a bullish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 100350, with a basis of - 250, indicating a discount to futures, which is neutral [2]. - Inventory: On February 6th, copper inventory increased by 2700 tons to 183275 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - Market Chart: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving down, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing and tight ore supply, along with geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4]. - Likely Negative Factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in different years from 2018 to 2024 [19][21].