大越期货沥青期货早报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the short - term strengthening [8]. - Overall expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently to relieve supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak, and overall demand is lower than expected. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2604 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3420 [9]. - Factors affecting the market: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Supply pressure is high, but refineries' production reduction eases the pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the off - season has a negative impact on demand [8]. - Cost: Crude oil price strengthening provides cost support [8]. - Market expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2604 in the range of 3352 - 3420 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Price and Basis: On February 6th, the Shandong spot price was 3240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 161 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory is continuously accumulating, factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory is continuously accumulating [9]. - Market Trend: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [9]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report provides the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [25]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [31][32]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio: The report provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Regional Market Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [41]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [45]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [47]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [50]. - Production Volume: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume from 2019 to 2026 [53]. - Marrey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: The report presents the historical trends of Marrey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [58]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [60]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report presents the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [63]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [66]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [69]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [73]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [76]. - Import and Export Analysis - Export and Import Trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [79]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - Apparent Consumption: The report presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [91]. - New Local Special Bonds: The report presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [92]. - Infrastructure Investment Completion: The report shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [92]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [95][97]. - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: The report presents the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [103]. - Downstream开工率: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane开工率 from 2021 to 2026 [106][107]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [110].