大越期货天胶早报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to decline, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the festival [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber starts to increase, the spot is strong, domestic inventories start to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment cools down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the festival [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply increases, and downstream consumption shows mixed trends. Automobile production and sales decline, but tire production increases year - on - year, and tire industry exports rebound [6][25][31] - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao inventory has rebounded [6][16][19] - Import: The import quantity has rebounded [22] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Likely to Fall Factors: Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 16000, and the basis is - 80, showing a bearish trend. The basis strengthened on February 6 [6][37] 3.5 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on February 6. The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [10][13]