大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 126,220 - 139,980. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [9][13] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In January 2026, the output was 97,900 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 81,930 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The import volume in January 2026 was 24,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 21,800 tons, an 11.02% decrease. [8][9] - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. [8][9] - Cost Side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased daily and was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 138,350 yuan/ton, a 0.42% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,715 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 136,032 yuan/ton, a 2.88% daily decrease, with a loss of 6,691 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9][10] - Other Factors: Bullish factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline. [11][12] 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Market Quotes: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's market quotes, including futures closing prices, basis, registered warrants, upstream prices, cathode material prices, and lithium - ion battery prices, along with their changes and percentage changes. [16] - Supply - side Data: It includes data such as weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, processing costs, and production profits of lithium carbonate, as well as monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore. [19] - Demand - side Data: It contains data on the production, inventory, and export of lithium - related downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials, as well as data on new energy vehicle production, sales, and export. [19]