大越期货甲醇周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the holiday approaches, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range next week. The inland methanol market is gradually entering the pre - holiday adjustment period. On the demand side, traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have successively shut down for holidays, and some downstream players have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a gradual decline in terminal demand. On the supply side, domestic methanol plants have continued to increase their sales efforts, with enterprise inventory levels running at a low level. Some enterprises have adopted a limited - sales strategy, and the overall supply side remains sufficient without obvious pressure. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity has significantly decreased, and it is expected that the inland methanol market will maintain a light consolidation pattern in the short term. In the port area, methanol futures followed the non - ferrous metals sector through a round of sharp rises and falls and then fell into range - bound fluctuations again. Currently, the capital sentiment has dissipated, the geopolitical risk between the US and Iran is uncertain, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. It is expected that the port market will fluctuate within the bottom range before the holiday. The operation is recommended to focus on reducing risk exposure. Keep an eye on whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military action against Iran [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The report predicts that the domestic methanol market will be range - bound next week due to the approaching holiday. The inland market is in a pre - holiday adjustment, with demand shrinking and supply sufficient. The port market is affected by factors such as capital sentiment and geopolitical risks, and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The domestic methanol prices in different regions showed different trends from January 30th to February 6th. Prices in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78%, those in Hebei increased by 1.24%, those in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12%, and those in Fujian decreased by 4.11%, while prices in Lunan remained unchanged [8] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the futures price decreased by 3.28%, and the basis increased by 13 [11] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From January 30th to February 6th, the profit of coal - to - methanol increased by 76, that of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged, and that of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol increased by 324 [13] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load this week was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week; the load in the northwest was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week [15] 3.2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the CFR China price decreased by 2.24%, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 6 [18] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the import cost decreased by 2.26%, and the import spread decreased by 11 [21] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from January 30th to February 6th [27] 3.2.8 Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the formaldehyde production profit decreased by 11, and the load increased by 0.01% [28] 3.2.9 Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 36, and the load increased by 1.45% [30] 3.2.10 Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the acetic acid production profit increased by 35, and the load decreased by 1.29% [35] 3.2.11 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 1264 on January 30th to - 1062 on February 6th, and the load decreased by 0.18% [39] 3.2.12 Methanol Port Inventory - This week, the inventory in East China was 56.36, a decrease of 3.22 compared with last week; the inventory in South China was 39.78, a decrease of 0.02 compared with last week [41] 3.2.13 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From January 30th to February 6th, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.99%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged [42] 3.3检修状况 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or have production problems in various regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since early November 2024 [44] 3.3.2 Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the US have different operating conditions. Some are in normal operation, some are restarting and recovering, and some are under maintenance. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one set restored, but it needs to be verified [45] 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices will be shut down for maintenance on March 15th for about 45 days [46]