大越期货油脂早报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk point is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - The inventory of palm oil ports on January 9 was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on January 9 was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - There are also contents about soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic oil and fat inventory, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [8][10][21][23]. Demand - There are contents about the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [12][14]. Price Expectations - The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3]. - The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4]. Other Factors - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5].