大越期货菜粕早报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2210 and 2270. The market was affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the medium term, considering factors such as the off - season demand and low inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in a range of 2210 - 2270. The market is influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports led to short - term negative news being digested, and the market returned to an oscillatory state. Spot demand is in the off - season, but low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, demand is expected to be good. The market is affected by the improvement in China - Canada trade relations, with short - term weak oscillation and medium - term range oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. The Canadian rapeseed harvest and export stage is affected by China - Canada trade issues, reducing short - term domestic supply. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister improved China - Canada trade relations, and the mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada where the output was higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely to Rise: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no inventory pressure [12]. - Likely to Fall: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is currently in the off - season, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume due to improved trade relations [12]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures are in a low - level oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, with the spot at a high premium [13][22][24]. - Inventory: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease from last week and a 12.79% year - on - year decrease from the same period last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory is low, and rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [9]. - Supply and Demand Balance: Data on the supply - demand balance of domestic rapeseed from 2016 - 2025 and domestic rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [9].