大越期货豆粕早报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): Expected to oscillate within the range of 2710 - 2770. Influenced by the US - China trade deal, South American weather, and domestic demand, it's likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): Forecasted to fluctuate between 4340 - 4440. Affected by factors such as US - China trade, South American weather, and domestic supply - demand, it will likely stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal futures return to an oscillatory state, while the spot price remains relatively stable, with the spot premium staying at a relatively high level [23]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills returns to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increases year - on - year [25][50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand [27][52]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the price difference of the 2605 contract fluctuates slightly [29]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean futures are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - China's import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains relatively high in January. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports its price. Influenced by US soybeans and the recovery of demand, it maintains an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, keeps soybean meal in a short - term oscillatory state, awaiting clear US soybean yields and further progress in the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: The total volume of imported soybeans in January remains relatively high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish Factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans leads to an increase in China's purchases; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of beans [15]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal - Basis: The spot price is 3030 (in East China), and the basis is 295, indicating a premium over futures [9]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills is 94.72 million tons, a 9.27% decrease from last week and a 70.15% increase from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans - Basis: The spot price is 4400, and the basis is 22, a neutral premium over futures [11]. - Inventory: The soybean inventory in oil mills is 687.33 million tons, a 3.62% decrease from last week and a 31.81% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The short positions of the main force decrease, and funds flow out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - Soybeans: The main force switches from long to short, and funds flow out, showing a bearish outlook [11]. 3.6 Other Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From January 29 to February 6, data on the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary: From January 30 to February 6, prices of soybean futures (including different contracts), soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices are presented [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From January 28 to February 6, data on the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including different varieties) and soybean meal are given [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, and consumption [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions: Information on the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 is presented [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and other aspects of US soybeans from June 2025 to January 2026 are provided, along with data on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - US Soybean Export Inspection and Imported Soybean Arrival Data: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreases month - on - month but increases year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans is at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreases year - on - year recently [45][47]. - Livestock - Related Data: The inventory of live pigs increases slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreases year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuates slightly, and the price of piglets rebounds slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China increases, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continues to rise. The domestic pig - raising profit shows a slight profit, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio decline to a low level [56][58][60][62][64].