2025年4季度金融科技与支付公开报表和估值指南（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the fintech and payments industry, but it highlights mixed performance among recent IPOs and varying investor sentiment towards growth and profitability metrics. Core Insights - The report indicates that public fintech companies are underperforming compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with a noted shift in investor focus from raw growth to growth unit economics and margin quality [7][10]. - Structural growth deceleration is becoming evident, with many mature fintech companies facing competitive pressures and entering multi-year investment cycles that limit near-term revenue acceleration [10][8]. - Companies are increasingly leveraging AI to drive operational efficiencies, with examples of firms like Klarna and SoFi implementing AI-driven models to enhance profitability and reduce costs [7][10]. Summary by Sections Key Takeaways - New listings in the fintech sector have shown mixed performance, with some companies like Circle and Figure seeing significant share price increases, while others like eToro and Navan have experienced declines [7]. - The earnings visibility discount is growing, leading to reduced investor confidence in near-term earnings and a focus on the quality of earnings as a valuation driver for 2026 [7][10]. Stock Returns - The report provides a detailed overview of stock performance across various fintech segments, indicating that neobanks and neobrokers have seen median returns of -3% over the past year, while high-growth fintech cohorts have shown more resilience [11][12]. Revenue - Revenue growth estimates for neobanks and neobrokers are projected to decline from a median of 36% in 2025 to 20% in 2026, reflecting a broader trend of recalibrated growth expectations across the fintech landscape [10][14]. - The report highlights specific revenue figures for key players, such as Coinbase with $55 billion in revenue and Robinhood with $102.8 billion, showcasing the significant scale of operations within the sector [14].