白糖周报（2.2-2.6）-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the sugar price showed a stable trend, mainly in a sideways consolidation phase. Before the Spring Festival, the market trend was unclear, with both long and short positions lacking the strength to launch an offensive, maintaining a balance[5]. - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the short - term, the 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5300[6][9]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, a drop in the price of foreign sugar to around 14.5 cents per pound, and an opening of the import profit window, increasing import pressure[7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, the sugar price was stable and sideways. Before the Spring Festival, the market trend was unclear, with both long and short positions in balance. Covrig Analytics and Green Pool predicted a reduction in the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season compared to the 25/26 season. In December 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data were also provided[5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5300[6][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, StoneX predicted a surplus of 370 tons in the 25/26 season, ISO predicted a surplus of 163 tons, and Green Pool predicted a surplus of 15.6 tons in the 26/27 season[9][32]. - Production and sales data: In December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 470.18 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 157 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons[5]. - Price data: The international sugar price in the 2024/25 - 2025/26 seasons was in the range of 14.0 - 21.7 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price was in the range of 5500 - 6492 yuan per ton. The cost and profit of imported raw sugar processing after 50% tariff were also provided[33][37]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.