沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices weakened, with a sharp drop of over 10,000 yuan per ton on Monday. Spot market sentiment was cautious, and traders' holiday - waiting sentiment increased. As nickel prices declined further, some downstream buyers entered the market. In terms of supply, January production continued to rise, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and LME inventories decreased slightly, with sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, there was strong bullish sentiment for nickel ore, but there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices began to decline, and the cost line shifted downward. Stainless - steel inventories continued to rise, which may put pressure on prices in the short term. Although the production and sales data of new - energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and positions are decreasing. The MACD shows a downward trend. With five trading days before the holiday, funds may continue to flow out. It is recommended to control positions and hold a light position during the holiday [80]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoints: Nickel prices weakened this week, with supply increasing and demand showing mixed signals. The industrial chain presented different situations for various products. - Strategies: Hold a small amount of short positions for both the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract, and stop losses if the price returns above the 20 - day moving average [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel Ore: Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 57 to 61, a 7.02% increase; NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 52 to 56, a 7.69% increase. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: Battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 33,000 to 32,150, a 2.58% decrease; electroplating - grade remained unchanged at 32,500. - Nickel - Iron: Low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,550; high - nickel iron in Shandong decreased from 1,060 to 1,045, a 1.42% decrease. - Electrolytic Nickel: Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 149,500 to 141,360, a 5.44% decrease; Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 142,150 to 130,810, a 7.98% decrease; Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased from 150,100 to 140,200, a 6.60% decrease. - Stainless Steel: 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,037.5 to 14,987.5, a 0.33% decrease [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: Nickel ore prices increased by $4 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained stable. - Inventory: On February 5, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 11.0853 million wet tons, a decrease of 638,100 wet tons or 5.44% from the previous period. - Import: In December 2025, nickel ore imports were 1.9928 million tons, a 40.33% decrease from the previous month and a 31.13% increase year - on - year. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a 10.94% increase year - on - year [18] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Electrolytic nickel prices weakened this week, with Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all decreasing. - Spot: Market sentiment was cautious this week, and as prices declined, some downstream buyers made purchases. Traders' holiday - waiting sentiment was strong. - Long - term Fundamentals: The global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new - energy field will provide key structural support. - Supply and Demand Balance: The global nickel supply and demand are in a state of slight surplus in some years. - Production: In January 2026, China's refined nickel production was 35,225 tons, a 14.34% increase from the previous month and a 4.91% increase year - on - year. The estimated production in February 2026 is 32,260 tons, a decrease of 8.42% from the previous month and a 2.68% decrease year - on - year. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394.299 tons, a significant increase from the previous month and year - on - year. Exports were 13,296.309 tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: In December 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 206,100 tons in physical terms and 45,400 tons in metal terms. The estimated production in January 2026 is 47,600 metal tons. Battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel prices decreased, while electroplating - grade remained unchanged. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,282 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,061 tons to 57,457 tons [24][26][27][30][34][37][40] 3.2.4 Nickel - Iron Market Conditions - Price: Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged, while high - nickel iron prices decreased. - Production: In December 2025, China's nickel - pig iron production was 21,400 tons in metal terms, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decrease. - Import: In December 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 996,000 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 11.149 million tons, a 24.2% increase year - on - year. - Inventory: In December, the negotiable inventory of nickel - iron was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [45][47][50][53] 3.2.5 Stainless - Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. - Production: In December, stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, with a decrease in 300 - series production. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless - steel imports were 145,000 tons and exports were 485,000 tons. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a 12,300 - ton increase from the previous period [58][63][66][69] 3.2.6 New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In December, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2%. - Power Battery: In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power - battery installation volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [74][77] 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, positions are decreasing, and the MACD shows a downward trend. With five trading days before the holiday, funds may continue to flow out. It is recommended to control positions and hold a light position during the holiday [80] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - Nickel Ore: Bullish sentiment is strong, but there is a contrast between overseas and domestic markets. - Nickel - Iron: Prices are falling, and the cost line is shifting downward. - Stainless Steel: Inventories are rising, which may put pressure on prices. - New - Energy Vehicles: Production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]