大越期货燃料油周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, fuel oil prices fluctuated with the first - falling - then - rising trend of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2809 yuan/ton, down 0.39% for the week, and the low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3281 yuan/ton, up 0.46% for the week [5]. - Despite strong downstream marine fuel demand before the Lunar New Year, the 0.5% sulfur marine fuel market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply and expected arrival of arbitrage cargoes from the Western market in February. However, as the arbitrage economy declines, the inflow of arbitrage cargoes from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in March, which may provide some support [5]. - Supported by relatively tight spot supply and stable downstream marine fuel demand, the fundamentals of the high - sulfur fuel oil market have strengthened. The spot price difference of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has reached the highest premium level in more than seven months. Recently, the arrival volume from the Middle East has decreased, and the spot supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively tight, while the downstream ship refueling demand is stable, especially from Capesize vessels [5]. - Crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate significantly, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with the market. For operation, the short - term operation range for high - sulfur fuel oil is 2750 - 2900, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 3200 - 3350 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints - Fuel oil prices fluctuated with crude oil last week. High - sulfur fuel oil had a weekly decline of 0.39% to 2809 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil had a weekly increase of 0.46% to 3281 yuan/ton. The 0.5% sulfur marine fuel market is pressured, but the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strong. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and fuel oil prices will follow. Operation ranges are given for high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2777, the current value is 2766, with a decrease of 11 and a decline rate of - 0.38%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3229, the current value is 3244, with an increase of 15 and an increase rate of 0.46% [6]. - Spot prices: For various types of fuel oils and diesel, prices mostly decreased. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 481.00 to 478.00, a decrease of 3.00 and a decline rate of - 0.62%. Only Singapore diesel increased by 1.86, with an increase rate of 0.29% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from 2025 - 11 - 26 to 2026 - 02 - 04 shows fluctuations. For example, on 2025 - 11 - 26, the inventory was 2059.9万桶 with a decrease of 285万桶, and on 2026 - 02 - 04, it was 2552.9万桶 with an increase of 95万桶 [11]. - There are also charts about Singapore fuel oil inventory seasonal chart and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trend, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [12][14]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - low sulfur futures spread, with no specific numerical analysis in the text [16].