大越期货生猪期货早报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as the secondary fattening period for southern pigs in China has ended, leading to a short - term increase in slaughter, and the demand for cured meat and sausages has also ended. Although the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, overall future consumption remains pessimistic. The market this week may see an increase in supply and a weakening in demand, with pig prices likely to enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. The price of live hog LH2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 11,900 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - There is no specific content for daily tips in the provided report. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live hog consumption market is affected by the arrival of the peak demand season. With the secondary fattening of southern pigs nearing the end and an increase in pig slaughter, the supply of live hogs is expected to increase. The spot price may rebound in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. - As the demand for cured meat at the end of the year gradually fades, the live hog spot market enters a stage of strong supply and demand. The room for further price decline in the short - term may be limited, and the price may bottom out and return to a volatile pattern. - The loss of domestic live hog breeding profit has recently shifted to small fluctuations. The short - term profit still remains in the red, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has increased in the short - term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of live hog futures and spot prices. - The live hog spot price remains at a high level. The futures may rise in the short - term and then fall back, and may generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic live hog demand enters the peak season at the end of the year, and the domestic live hog spot price is at a relatively high level at the end of the year [11]. - Bearish Factors: The secondary fattening of domestic live hogs at the end of the year increases, along with concentrated slaughter, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic live hog inventory is lower than expected [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live hogs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 31, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.61 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. As of March 31, the live hog inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [8][26]. - Demand: The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but overall future consumption remains pessimistic [8]. - Price: The national average spot price is 12,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is 425 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [8].