中国继续采购美豆，豆粕外强内弱（豆粕周报2.2-2.6）-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Overall: The soybean and soybean meal markets are in a complex situation, with multiple factors such as Sino - US trade, South American weather, and domestic supply - demand affecting prices. Both are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [10][11]. - Soybean: US soybeans are in a volatile state, waiting for the follow - up of the Sino - US trade agreement and South American weather. Domestic soybeans are affected by factors like spot price strength, demand, Sino - US trade, and import volume, also showing short - term volatility [11]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by US soybean trends, end - of - year demand, and import volume. It is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybeans are oscillating around 1,100 points in the short - term [13]. - Domestic soybean imports will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. The weather for soybean planting and growth in South America is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - Domestic pig - farming losses have led to low expectations for pig restocking. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports its price expectations. Affected by the interaction of US soybeans and rising soybean meal demand, it maintains a range - bound pattern [13]. - Domestic soybean meal inventories in oil mills remain high. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Affected by the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal will maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; domestic oil mills have no pressure on soybean meal inventory; there are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish: The total import volume of domestic soybeans remained high in January; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Bullish: The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement leads to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2016 to 2025, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [21]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: From June 2025 to January 2026, the US soybean planting area, yield, and output showed some fluctuations, and the期末库存 also changed [22]. - US Soybean Growth Process: In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvesting processes of US soybeans were compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing different growth progress [23][24][25]. - South American Soybean Growth Process: In the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, the planting and harvesting processes of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina were compared with the previous year and the five - year average [26][27][28][29][30]. 3.5 Positioning Data No information provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The January USDA report has a slightly bearish impact. US soybeans are in a weak - volatile state in the short - term, affected by the increase in Brazilian soybean production. The overall short - term trend is influenced by weather changes in South American soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade agreement [34]. - The Fed's interest rate cut in December is positive for commodities in the short - term. The US soybean futures market is expected to maintain volatility, and the weather in South America and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade agreement are the main driving forces for short - and medium - term trends [34]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Imported Soybean Arrival: The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year volume has recently decreased [37]. - Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills has continued to decline, while the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand [38][40][42]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The procurement of domestic downstream enterprises has rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume has remained at a relatively high level [46]. - Pig - Farming Inventory: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has rebounded slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has continued to rise. The domestic pig - farming profit is slightly profitable, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [47][49][51][53][55]. 3.7 Meal Market Structure - The soybean meal futures have returned to a volatile state, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium has remained at a relatively high level [60]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [62]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean - The soybean futures are in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the interaction of US soybean trends and the relative strength of domestic soybean spot. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a volatile adjustment stage, and the future trend needs new guidance [67]. - Domestically, soybeans are in a strong - volatile state, affected by the follow - up of the Sino - US trade agreement, the strength of domestic soybean spot, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans. The overall trend is affected by multiple factors such as the import of US soybeans and domestic soybean production [68]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, affected by the interaction of US soybean trends and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a volatile adjustment stage, and the future trend needs new guidance. The overall situation is in a range - bound pattern, affected by the bearish weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the peak domestic demand season [70]. - The soybean meal is affected by the interaction of US soybean trends and the off - season of domestic demand, and it rebounds after reaching the bottom. The expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans and the relatively high arrival volume of imported soybeans suppress the price expectations, while the follow - up of the Sino - US trade agreement and the weather in South American soybean - producing areas support the bottom price [71]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus - Most Important: The growth and harvesting weather in South American soybean - producing areas, the follow - up of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of Chinese imported soybeans [72]. - Second - Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors and conflicts such as those between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Palestine [73]. 3.10 Trading Strategies 3.10.1 Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are oscillating around 1,100 points in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. For the M2605 contract, short - term trading is recommended within the range of 2,700 - 2,900 [16]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [18]. 3.10.2 Soybean - Futures: The A2605 contract of soybean is expected to oscillate within the range of 4,300 - 4,500, and short - term range trading is recommended [19]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].