中加贸易关系缓和影响过去，菜粕回归震荡（菜粕周报2.2-2.6）-20260209

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal is in a narrow - range shock. Affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, after the short - term negative news of China's cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions is digested, the market returns to shock. The spot demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is weakly shocked in the short term due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations and remains range - bound in the medium term [8]. - After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal rebounds after reaching the bottom. Considering the current supply - demand off - season in China, it will maintain a shock pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade relations [8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the seasonal off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. During the Canadian rapeseed harvesting and export period, the China - Canada trade issue affects the short - term export, reducing the domestic supply expectation [10]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual additional tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future decisions will depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the Canadian production is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival; No pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season; The improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from the low level [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [20][22]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not provided in the report - Aquaculture: The prices of aquatic fish have declined slightly, while the prices of shrimps and shellfish have remained stable [30]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have increased, and the capital has flowed out, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it returns to the range shock. For the single - side operation, RM2605 will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The main operation strategy is range - bound trading [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - After the negative impact of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China is digested, rapeseed meal returns to shock. The China - Canada trade relations may return to normal. Rapeseed meal rebounds after reaching the bottom in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the quantity of imported Canadian rapeseed [42]. - The KDJ indicator fluctuates at the mid - low level. The short - term market enters the technical shock consolidation stage. The indicator at the mid - low level limits the space for further decline. Whether it continues to adjust or rebound needs further observation and guidance [42]. - The MACD rebounds from the low level, showing a short - term technical rebound, but the red energy narrows. Whether the subsequent trend continues to rise or fall needs to wait for the policy guidance on Canadian rapeseed imports [42]. - According to the indicators, rapeseed meal is weakly shocked in the short term and strongly shocked in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and the short - term soybean meal trend. The subsequent trend needs further guidance from policies and soybean meal [42]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas; The export of Canadian rapeseed and the domestic processing demand; The arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; The rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and the downstream procurement situation [44]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].