不锈钢产业日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 13,300 - 14,200 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the 03 - 04 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,580 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 480 lots; the main contract position is 41,399 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,769 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 53,523 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,723 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, with a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, with an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 139,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,650 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, with an increase of 8,200 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, with an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, with an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [2] - The State Council Executive Meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and new policy - based financial instruments [2] - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, a six - month high, and the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, a one - year low [2] - In the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. Domestic nickel - iron plants' raw material inventories are tightening; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and nickel - iron production will face production cut pressure [2] 3.7 Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but the nickel - iron price has risen, and the cost - end support has shifted upward. Moreover, there are more steel mill overhauls at the end of the year, and the output increase is relatively limited [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, but the stainless steel export volume still maintains high growth, indicating strong export demand resilience. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall trading atmosphere tends to be calm, and traders mainly focus on delivering pre - holiday processing orders. The overall resource consumption speed slows down, and the national stainless steel social inventory enters seasonal accumulation [2] 3.8 Technical Aspect - The position has decreased and the price has adjusted, and both long and short sides are trading cautiously [2]