合成橡胶产业日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with a majority of sample production enterprises and trading enterprises seeing a decline in inventory. It is expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and some enterprises went on holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly stop production from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term [2]. - The short - term price of the br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,550 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,810 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20; the position of the main contract is 27,608, with a week - on - week increase of 331 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 11,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, and Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 [2]. - Brent crude oil is at 68.05 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 690 US dollars per ton, with no change; WTI crude oil is at 63.55 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 [2]. - The CFR Japan price of naphtha is 602.63 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62; the CFR China intermediate price of butadiene is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.35; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 [2]. - The current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 8 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some sample enterprises stopped production for the holiday at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%; the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points [2]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. Pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders are selling at a discount to recover funds, and downstream procurement has basically ended. New transactions have decreased, and the focus is on picking up goods. Last week, the inventory of most production enterprises decreased, and the overall inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly [2]. - As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.78% [2].