瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main - producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production to the low - production period, with the total supply shrinking. Recently, both the bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have shown inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for basic needs, and the warehouse outbound volume continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined last week, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,500, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,870 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,245 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,095 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai rubber main contract are 150,270 hands, up 4,240 hands; the positions of the 20 - number rubber main contract are 48,669 hands, down 1,481 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 36,562 hands, down 423 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 8,807 hands, up 387 hands. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 112,570 tons, up 500 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 51,004 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The Shanghai rubber basis is - 80 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,497 yuan/ton, down 131 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 447 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 61.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.86 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 59.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.53%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.86%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.56%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.55%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, up 15,100 tons month - on - month, an increase of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points month - on - month and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points month - on - month and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year [2].