沪铜产业日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index is running at a low level, and the global mine tightness situation has not improved. The domestic production of copper may decline due to raw material supply constraints and holiday factors. The demand for pre - holiday stocking has increased, and domestic copper inventories have shown seasonal accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,840 yuan/ton, up 1,740 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,054.5 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 169,613 lots, down 5,693 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders in Shanghai copper is - 57,229 lots, up 8,065 lots. LME copper inventory is 183,275 tons, up 2,700 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory is 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,300 tons, down 650 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants are 157,128 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 589,081 short tons, up 2,652 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,555 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,610 yuan/ton, up 1,595 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 285 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 70.95 dollars/ton, up 6.63 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 tons, up 17.8 tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 52.37 dollars/kiloton, down 2.53 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,950 yuan/metal ton, up 1,610 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,650 yuan/metal ton, up 1,610 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee for blister copper is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 132.6 tons, up 9 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 tons, up 0.43 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,790 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 80,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.91 tons, up 0.31 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 6,395.02 billion yuan, up 791.13 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.5 thousand pieces, up 415,345.5 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.79%, down 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.83%, up 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 30.29%, up 0.0087; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.52, up 0.0179 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth can help inflation fall to the 2% target. The State Council executive meeting studied policies to promote effective investment. China's social logistics cost has been declining steadily, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP in 2025 dropped to 13.9%. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February reached 57.3, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%. China will build a "1 + N" policy system to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [2]