建信期货国债日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors in February and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively protect the cross - festival capital, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the festival, the supply pressure will rise, and the market may focus on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, with long - term bonds being more favorable. In the last trading week before the festival, trading is expected to fade, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Due to stable pre - holiday funds and strong institutional allocation demand, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.799%, down 0.3bp [8][9] - Funding Market: The inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The supply of local bonds decreased significantly this week. The central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival were worth attention. The net investment in reverse repurchase in the open market was 3.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index continued to decline. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, the 7 - day funding rate rose 7.7bp to around 1.54%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] - Conclusion: Although the current fundamentals are weak, structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectations are not strong. In addition, the planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, which causes market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of the 10 - year treasury bond does not price in the possible future loose space. With the support of allocation demand at the beginning of the year and the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the capital, the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11] 3.2 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policies and measures, and making good use of funds such as central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy - based financial instruments. Major projects and works in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries should be planned and promoted [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired the tenth plenary meeting of the State Council, discussing the draft government work report and the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan. Li Qiang pointed out that macro - policies should be implemented in advance, and fiscal funds should be arranged as early as possible. It is necessary to closely track the changes in the situation, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and make policy pre - research and reserves, and introduce policies in a timely manner as needed [13] - Eight departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued a document, clarifying that virtual currency - related business activities are illegal financial activities and are strictly prohibited in China. No domestic or foreign unit or individual may issue stablecoins linked to the RMB overseas without permission. Domestic entities and their controlled overseas entities may not issue virtual currencies overseas. Activities related to the tokenization of real - world assets in China are prohibited. Without permission or filing, no unit or individual may conduct tokenization business of real - world assets overseas [13] - According to data from the China Index Academy, in January, a total of 118,000 second - hand residential units were traded in 20 cities, a slight month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The overall market transaction maintained a certain level of activity, but the current market structural contradictions are still prominent, and the differentiation between first - hand and second - hand housing is obvious [14] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 3.3991 trillion US dollars, an increase of 41.2 billion US dollars or 1.23% from the end of December 2025. The gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presents data on the trading of treasury bond futures on February 9, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change of various contracts [6] - Money Market: The report shows the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]