建信期货集运指数日报-20260210

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - The SCFIS dropped below 1700 points this week. The peak pre - Chinese New Year shipping demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. Given slow post - holiday resumption and the upcoming April off - season, it's difficult to maintain high prices. Although the major airlines plan to resume Red Sea routes, the market is likely to remain in the off - season after the Chinese New Year. The high capacity in March limits potential price rebounds. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots, and it is recommended to short - sell the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Condition: The SCFIS fell below 1700 points. The pre - Chinese New Year peak shipping demand has passed, and spot freight rates are expected to decline. For example, the pre - holiday quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam by Maersk was around $2100 - 2170 per large container, dropping to $2000 after the holiday. OCEAN Alliance's February quote was in the range of $2293 - 2430, and Premier Alliance's February quote was around $2035, with a $2535 quote for March. However, due to slow post - holiday resumption and the April off - season, it's hard to maintain high prices. The major airlines' plan to resume Red Sea routes may not change the off - season trend, and the high capacity in March limits potential rebounds [8] - Operation Suggestions: Short - sell the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3.2 Industry News - Overall Market: From February 2nd to 6th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable. Before the Chinese New Year, the cargo volume was high, and the overall index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on February 6th was 1266.56 points, a 3.8% drop from the previous period [9] - European Routes: European economic data was stable, and the shipping demand was stable. Due to pre - holiday stocking, the cargo volume was high, and the average cabin utilization rate at Shanghai Port was nearly full. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports on February 6th was $1403/TEU, a 1.1% drop from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: Similar to European routes, the spot booking price in the spot market dropped more than in Europe. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports on February 6th was $2291/TEU, a 5.5% drop from the previous period [9] - North American Routes: The consumer current situation index released by the University of Michigan in January was 55.4, higher than expected and the previous value but lower than last year's average, indicating high uncertainty in the US economy. The shipping market supply - demand situation was stable, with the average cabin utilization rate at Shanghai Port above 90% and some flights to the US West fully loaded. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on February 6th were $1801/FEU and $2530/FEU respectively, dropping 3.5% and 2.9% from the previous period [9][10] - Geopolitical News: The US announced the second - stage plan for the Gaza cease - fire on January 14th, focusing on demilitarization, technocratic governance, and post - war reconstruction. There are differences between Netanyahu and Trump on this plan. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia against military actions, and the Yemeni President's Leadership Council announced the establishment of a supreme military council [10] 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on February 9th was 1657.94, a 7.5% drop from February 2nd [12] - The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) on February 9th was 1155.66, a 4.9% increase from February 2nd [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes: The trading data of container shipping European routes futures on February 9th is shown in Table 1, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - Shipping - Related Data Trends: There are multiple data charts shown, including container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][23]