大越期货尿素早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period last year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, the order demand is still acceptable, and the agricultural reserve demand is good. In the industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, while the operating rate of melamine has declined. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1084 thousand tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The net position of the main UR contract holders is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. Comprehensive inventory is falling, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Near the Spring Festival, order demand is okay, agricultural reserve demand is good. In industrial demand, compound fertilizer demand is stable, and melamine operating rate has declined. There is a large export price difference, but the domestic market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1084 thousand tons (-0.5), which is bullish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract holders is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year - on - year. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream reserve demand is acceptable, and the inventory is being depleted [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Bullish Factors: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic market oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Market Data - Spot Market: The price of the spot delivery product is 1790, with a change of +30; the price of Shandong spot is 1790, with a change of +10; the price of Henan spot is 1790, unchanged; and the FOB China price is 3063 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the 05 contract is 1788, with a change of +12; the basis is 2, with a change of +18; the price of UR01 is 1744, with a change of +12; the price of UR05 is 1788, with a change of +12; the price of UR09 is 1748, with a change of +10 [6]. - Inventory Data: The number of warehouse receipts is 10860, unchanged; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1084 thousand tons, with a change of -0.5; the UR manufacturer inventory is 919 thousand tons, and the UR port inventory is 165 thousand tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The production volume has also generally shown an upward trend. The net import volume and apparent consumption have also changed accordingly. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied in different years. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].