大越期货油脂早报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall MPOB report for December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. However, the current shipping survey institutions show a 29% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data in January, and as the subsequent production season approaches, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which has affected the export of new US soybeans and put pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Soybean Oil Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - Palm Oil Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - Rapeseed Inventory: Not provided with specific data. - Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory: Not provided with specific data. - Soybean Meal Inventory: Not provided with specific data. - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: Not provided with specific data. Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Not provided with specific data. - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Not provided with specific data.