大越期货天胶早报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday. The overall situation is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4] Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. Tire operating rates are at a high level, but automobile production and sales are declining. Tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are recovering [4][23][29] - Inventory: Exchange inventories have changed little recently, while Qingdao area inventories have rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [4][14][17] - Import: Import volume has rebounded [20] - Spot Price: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on February 9, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8][11] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall Factors: Negative domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 16,100, and the basis is - 145, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on February 9 [4][35]