大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260210

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors have led to strong cost support, but the downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few overall orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6650 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -71, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000), which is bullish [4] - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has increased, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [4] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start-up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 20, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000), which is bullish [7] - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [7] Supply and Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16] Other Information - Spot and Futures Market Data: The report provides detailed spot and futures market data for LLDPE and PP, including prices, changes, and inventory information [9] - Charts: The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, inventory, and production cash flow of LLDPE and PP [10][12][17]