大越期货原油早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors continue to support oil prices. Russian crude oil production declined for the second consecutive month in January due to difficulties in sales caused by US sanctions. Some crude oil flows from India have shifted to China. The US warning about ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz indicates unstable situation, which boosts oil prices. Although there are signs of progress in the nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, the warning still exists. In the short - term, supply - side tightness factors also push up oil prices. The SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 470 - 480, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Russian oil tankers are increasingly listing Singapore as the official destination, indicating a shift in export flows from India to China and growing concerns about Western sanctions. The US issued the latest guidelines for merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that US - flagged ships stay away from Iranian territorial waters and reject boarding requests verbally [3]. - Basis: On February 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.21 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $66.56 per barrel. The basis was 31.55 yuan/barrel, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 11.079 million barrels in the week ending January 30, far exceeding the expected decrease of 256,000 barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels in the same week, while the expected increase was 489,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 743,000 barrels in the week ending January 30. As of February 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of February 3, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - Expectation: SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 470 - 480, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Price Increase: Crude oil prices have risen for two days due to the risk premium caused by the Middle East tension. WTI crude oil has risen 1.7% in the past two trading days and is trading above $64 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is above $69. The US warned ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, although there are signs of progress in the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran [5]. - Russian Output: Russia's crude oil production decreased for the second consecutive month in January, averaging 9.28 million barrels per day (excluding condensate). This is 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the production allowed under the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing, and as of early February, the backlog of Russian crude oil at sea has reached 143 million barrels, almost double that of a year ago and more than a quarter higher than in late November [5]. - US Warning: The US government warned that US - flagged ships should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to a recent ship harassment incident, indicating continued tension between the US and Iran [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions against Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6]. - Bearish Factors: IEA's concern about crude oil surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term focus on geopolitics; long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent crude oil rose from $68.05 to $69.04, an increase of 1.45%. WTI crude oil rose from $63.55 to $64.36, an increase of 1.27%. SC crude oil rose from 461.8 to 466.0, an increase of 0.91%. Oman crude oil rose from $67.46 to $67.78, an increase of 0.47% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have changed. UK Brent Dtd rose from $71.42 to $72.29, an increase of 1.22%. WTI rose from $63.55 to $64.36, an increase of 1.27%. Oman crude oil decreased from $67.93 to $67.21, a decrease of 1.06%. Shengli crude oil decreased from $64.28 to $63.57, a decrease of 1.10%. Dubai crude oil decreased from $68.19 to $67.13, a decrease of 1.55% [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory decreased by 11.079 million barrels in the week ending January 30. EIA inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels in the same week [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of February 3, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 124,565, an increase of 27,583 [18]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of February 3, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 278,249, an increase of 31,332 [20].