大越期货菜粕早报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2210 - 2270. The market was affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations, showing short - term weakening in oscillations, but is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations in the medium term. The overall situation will return to an oscillatory pattern after the digestion of negative factors, and the development of China - Canada trade relations should be closely monitored [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Due to the China - Canada trade issue, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, leading to an expected reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relationship has improved in the short term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually lifted, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. The future situation depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia relatively offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to remain good after the Spring Festival, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered a short - term off - season, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume due to the improvement of China - Canada trade relations [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Transaction data: From January 30 to February 9, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2470 yuan, and the daily trading volume was mostly 0 or 0.5 - 30,000 tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 691 yuan [13]. - Price data: From February 2 to February 9, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main contract RM2605 fluctuated between 2238 - 2276 yuan, the far - month contract RM2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2297 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2430 - 2460 yuan [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From January 30 to February 9, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Supply - demand balance data: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance during the same period, the total supply and demand also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - View: The rapeseed meal market is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical oscillations. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to an oscillatory pattern. The spot demand has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. The short - term market is affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations and shows weak oscillations, while the medium - term remains range - bound [9]. - Analysis of influencing factors: The basis is at a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has decreased compared with the previous week and the same period last year, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions have increased and the funds have flowed in, which is bearish [9].