大越期货生猪期货早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as the secondary fattening period in southern China ends and the demand for cured meat and sausages also finishes. Although the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the overall future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may see an increase in supply and a weakening demand expectation, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of live pigs: The end of the secondary fattening period in southern China leads to a short - term increase in the number of pigs for sale, suppressing pig prices. The demand for cured meat and sausages has ended, and overall, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may have more supply and weaker demand expectations, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the spot price of the secondary fattening market, which may support the bottom of the futures market. The view is neutral. - The basis: The national average spot price is 11,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is 145 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor. - Inventory: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. This is a bearish factor. - The disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. This is a bearish factor. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. This is a bearish factor. - Expectation: In the near term, both the supply and demand of live pigs are increasing. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and rebound this week and generally maintain a range - bound pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the peak demand season. With the end of secondary fattening in southern China, the number of live pigs for sale has increased, and the supply expectation has increased. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. - As the demand for cured meat at the end of the year gradually fades, the live pig spot market enters a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. The room for further price decline in the short term may be limited, and the price may bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profit has fluctuated slightly recently and remains slightly in the red in the short term. The enthusiasm for selling large pigs has increased in the short term, and the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The live pig spot price is weak in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate and decline in the short term, bottom out and rebound in the medium term, or maintain a range - bound pattern. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The domestic demand for live pigs is still in the peak season at the end of the year; the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range. - Bearish factors: The secondary fattening of live pigs at the end of the year in China has increased, and there is concentrated slaughter; the year - on - year decrease in the live pig inventory is lower than expected. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from February 2 to February 9, including the prices of near - month 2603 and main 2605 contracts, the number of warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - It also shows the historical trends of live pig basis, contract spreads, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs, and the prices of related indicators on the supply side (such as the average price of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows; piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate; monthly live pig inventory and its month - on - month trend; monthly inventory of breeding sows; live pig inventory of large - scale farms; monthly pork import trend; fattening cost; feed profit expectation; live pig slaughter volume and average weight; slaughter profit; self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet profit; price difference between pigs and other meats), on the slaughter side (such as the average price of白条, the price difference between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, the average price in 36 cities), on the demand side (such as the annual pork consumption volume), the pig - grain ratio, and the historical trends of live pig price increases and decreases, and the situation of live pig storage and release [15][17][23][50][60][63][67]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the document