大越期货白糖早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to shrink compared to the 25/26 season. Covrig Analytics predicts the surplus to be 1.4 million tons, down from 4.7 million tons in 25/26, and Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 156,000 tons, lower than 2.74 million tons in 25/26 [4]. - The external market is oscillating at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has shown a slight rebound recently. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The short - term 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5,200 - 5,300 [5][8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - year global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - The global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to shrink. In the 25/26 season, as of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 4.7018 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 89 (05 contract), with a premium over futures, which is neutral. As of the end of October in the 25/26 season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors: Increase in global sugar production, new - year global supply surplus, drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons in the 25/26 season, StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 25/26 season, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than 2.74 million tons in 25/26 [4][9]. - In the 25/26 season, the sugar - producing area data shows that the sugar - cane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production are expected to change compared to previous seasons. The estimated sugar production in 25/26 is 11.7 million tons, with an expected import of 5 million tons and consumption of 15.7 million tons [33]. - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar processing after tax (50% tariff) are presented. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan/ton with a profit of 618 yuan/ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data - The main positions are bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [5].