大越期货贵金属早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold price oscillated and rebounded due to a political "black swan" event in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged, and short - term volatility was high. It has not returned to the upward trend, so cautious operation is recommended. [4] - Silver price rose significantly again due to increased risk appetite. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, also suggesting cautious operation. [5] - With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which supports gold and silver prices. However, the downward risks also increase. [10][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: The UK political "black swan" event occurred. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce. The basis was - 4.08, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [4] - Silver: Risk appetite increased, and the silver price rose significantly again. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. The basis was - 1123, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [5][6] 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: Today, pay attention to the US December retail sales and import price index, as well as the speeches of Fed officials. The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a rebound in the gold price. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged to about - 1.8 yuan/gram, and the sentiment converged. CME and SHFE raised margins again, with high short - term volatility and the price not yet back in the upward trend, so cautious operation is needed. [4] - Silver: The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a significant rebound in the silver price, which declined in the morning. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the domestic sentiment cooled rapidly. The silver price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, so cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: The International Energy Week opens in London, UK (February 10 - 12) [17] - 21:30: US December retail sales and import price index [4][17] - 23:00: The New York Fed releases the Q4 2025 household debt and credit report [17] - Next day 01:00: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack talks about the banking industry and economic outlook [17] - Next day 02:00: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at an asset management forum [17] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which makes it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, as all metals are strengthening, the downward risk of the gold price also increases. [10] - Silver: With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, and there is still macro - level support. The sentiment of bullishness and investment is high. Although the sentiment has cooled slightly under regulatory pressure, the price has not declined. [14] 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold increased by 3.32% to 149,691 on February 9 compared with February 8, the short position decreased by 13.49% to 32,638, and the net position increased by 9.24% to 117,053. [33] - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver increased by 1.25% to 301,257 on February 9 compared with February 6, the short position increased by 2.04% to 203,025, and the net position decreased by 0.35% to 98,232. [35]