大越期货甲醇早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week. The inland methanol market is entering the pre - holiday rest period. Demand is decreasing as traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have stopped for holidays and some downstream has completed pre - holiday stockpiling. The supply side remains sufficient with no obvious pressure as domestic methanol factories are increasing sales efforts and inventory levels are low. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the holiday, with the suggestion to reduce risk exposure. The report also mentions to watch whether and when US President Trump will launch a real armed action against Iran, with a neutral stance. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2605 operating between 2210 - 2280 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The methanol 2605 contract: In terms of fundamentals, the inland market will maintain a light consolidation pattern, and the port market will oscillate at the bottom. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of February 5, 2026, the social inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas also decreased. The 20 - day line is flat with the price below the average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2210 - 2280 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some devices like Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely to be bearish: Some previously stopped devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal in the Bohai Rim and CFR China Main Port remained unchanged, while the prices in Inner Mongolia and Fujian increased by 65 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The futures closing price decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan increased by 11 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased by 1 yuan/ton [8]. - Operation rate data: The weighted average national operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions decreased by 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - Inventory data: As of February 5, 2026, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 3.24 million tons to 961,400 tons, and the tradable supply in coastal areas decreased by 355,000 tons to 463,900 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic device maintenance: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by region and enterprise [60]. - Foreign device operation: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. Devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, but some have low operation rates or are in the process of maintenance [61]. - Olefin device operation: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low loads [62].