原油成品油早报-20260210

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].