大越期货豆粕早报-20260210

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures M2605 is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2760, with a neutral outlook. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean market and is currently in a fluctuating pattern due to mixed news. The basis is positive, but inventory and market trends show bearish signals, and the main positions are reducing short - positions with capital outflow [9]. - The soybean futures A2605 is expected to trade in the range of 4400 - 4500, also with a neutral outlook. The domestic soybean market is supported by strong spot prices and short - term demand, but is also affected by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2760, with a neutral outlook. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market, and short - term fluctuations are expected due to mixed news [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to trade in the range of 4400 - 4500, with a neutral outlook. The domestic soybean market is influenced by factors such as the China - US trade agreement and imported Brazilian soybeans [10]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills is relatively high in January. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal in January is good, supporting the price. The interaction between the US soybean market and the recovery of soybean meal demand will maintain the range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains relatively high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations has an impact. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas [13]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in January remains relatively high; Brazilian soybeans have started planting, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From January 30 to February 9, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3160 yuan/ton, and the trading volume varied from 5.03 - 26.17 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2430 - 2470 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0 or 0.5 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was around 667 - 691 yuan/ton [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From February 2 to February 9, the price of soybean futures (A2605) fluctuated between 4375 - 4393 yuan/ton, the price of soybean meal futures (M2605) was between 2723 - 2750 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean (in Jiamusi) was 4400 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal (in Jiangsu) was between 3010 - 3040 yuan/ton [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From January 29 to February 9, the soybean (A) warehouse receipts decreased from 25662 to 25338, the soybean (B) warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 700, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 33428 to 36228 and then decreased to 36180 [19]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short - positions are decreasing, and capital is flowing out, showing a bearish signal [9]. - For soybeans, the main positions have changed from short to long, and capital is flowing in, showing a bullish signal [10].