甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260210

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 2225 to 2210, the华南现货 price increased from 2223 to 2218, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2395. The西北折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2470. The进口利润 improved from -36 to -25, and the主力基差 improved from -45 to -30 [2]. Core View - The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, with Xingxing shutting down, Shenghong shutting down in February, and Luxi shutting down next week. Others also have plans to reduce production, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran normalizes. Currently, it is difficult for methanol prices to go up or down. The MTO profit caps the upper limit, and unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish outlook or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Group 3: Plastic Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the东北亚乙烯 price decreased from 695 to 690. The华北LL price decreased from 6680 to 6570, the华东LL price remained at 6875, and the华东LD price decreased from 8875 to 8650. The LL进口利润 decreased from 91 to -91, and the主力期货 price decreased from 6865 to 6721. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 43, and the仓单 remained at 9428 [2]. Core View - The futures market is oscillating, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with North China - East China at -80, a decrease of 30; South China - East China at 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil is oscillating, the oil - based profit is deteriorating, and the coal - based profit is also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industry is destocking, and the two major oil companies are destocking. Social inventory has increased this week, with HD inventory at a low level, LD inventory increasing, and LL inventory slightly higher than normal. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, there were few maintenance in January, and the full - density production has recovered. In the future, supply will recover. According to the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for 05 is neutral, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under relatively high pressure [2]. Group 4: PP Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6400, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 785. The华东PP price increased from 6610 to 6530, the华北PP price decreased from 6638 to 6588, and the山东粉料 price decreased from 6520 to 6500. The PP美金 price decreased from 825 to 835, and the出口利润 improved from -57 to -37. The主力期货 price decreased from 6730 to 6630, and the基差 remained at -140. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 42, and the仓单 decreased from 17223 to 17195 [3]. Core View - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225, with the export volume slightly decreasing month - on - month. The domestic regional price difference shows North China - East China at -70, an increase of 35; South China - East China at 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, the oil - based profit is stable, the PDH comprehensive profit is -970, an increase of 230, and the PHD operating rate is stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is flat month - on - month. Downstream purchases slightly at low prices during the festival. Upstream, the two major oil companies are destocking, the coal chemical industry is increasing inventory, and social inventory is increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is neutral. According to the balance sheet, the outlook for 05 and the following periods is slightly on the high side, and PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed for improvement [3]. Group 5: PVC Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the西北电石 price remained at 2550, the山东烧碱 price decreased from 622 to 617. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4860 to 4830, and the进口美金价 remained at 700. The出口利润 decreased from 268 to 186, and the基差 remained at -220 [4][5]. Core View - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 575, and that of calcium carbide - based PVC is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged, and the semi - coke price is 820, unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali is around -600. The ethylene - calcium carbide price is stable. Upstream, the operating rate this week is 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9, an increase of 0.4w, the PVC social inventory is 111.4w, an increase of 5w, with 106w in East China, an increase of 5w, and 5.4w in South China, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly high, and the export volume is flat month - on - month. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the seasonal operating rate is recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large, and the sustainability of future exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [5].