大越期货沥青期货早报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the asphalt market are bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, the cost support from crude oil is weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 3300 - 3368 [7][8][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7] - Demand Side: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are mostly lower than or close to historical averages, indicating that current demand is lower than historical averages [8] - Cost Side: The daily processing profit of asphalt was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8] - Other Aspects: The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. On February 9th, the Shandong spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory increased by 5.16% month - on - month, the in - plant inventory decreased by 3.15% month - on - month, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 20.24% month - on - month. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20 [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Prices: The closing prices of most asphalt futures contracts decreased, with the 04 contract closing at 3347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 1.59% compared to the previous value [15] - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis at - 137 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan compared to the previous value [15] - Some Inter - monthly Spreads: The spreads of some contract combinations changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 3 to - 6, a change rate of 100.00% [15] - Weekly Data: Weekly inventory, operating rate, output, and other data also showed corresponding changes, such as the social inventory increasing by 5.16% week - on - week, and the national heavy - traffic operating rate decreasing by 4.39% week - on - week [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22] - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spreads: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [24][25] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trends: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28] - Crude Oil Crack Spreads: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [30][31][32] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratios: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [34][35] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions: The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2026 [37][38] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40][41] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [43][44][45] - Supply Side: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [46][47] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [49][50] - Output: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2026 [52][53] - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: The report shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [56][58] - Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [59][60] - Operating Rate: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [62][63] - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [65][66] - Inventory: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [68][69][71] - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and in - plant inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [72][73] - In - Plant Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [75][76] - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - Korean Asphalt Import Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82][83] - Demand Side: - Petroleum Coke Output: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [84][85] - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88] - Downstream Demand: - Infrastructure - Related Demand: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][92] - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97] - Asphalt Operating Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100] - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103] - Downstream Operating Conditions: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [105][106][107] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109][110]