大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 130,740 - 144,420. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline. The main risk points are the impact of production cut/overhaul plans and the start - time of industry clearance [8][9][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In January 2026, the output was 97,900 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 81,930 physical tons, a 16.31% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in January was 24,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 21,800 physical tons, an 11.02% month - on - month decrease [8] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% week - on - week decrease. The demand is expected to strengthen next month [8] - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 138,350 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 5,672 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 136,032 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 5,711 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margin and strong production motivation [8] - Basis: On February 9, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 135,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 1,500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8] - Inventory: The smelter's inventory was 18,356 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventory was 43,450 tons, a 9.25% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8] - Disk: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8] 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.90% to 1,897 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.74% to 135,500 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2.43% to 34,597 lots [13] - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 87.14%, with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 138,350 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene increased by 0.43% to 20,950 yuan/ton. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in January was 97,900 tons, a 1.31% month - on - month decrease [15] - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate and output of lithium iron phosphate and some other products decreased. The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.81% to 396,600 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 4.92% to 98,100 GWh [15]