美银：The Flow Show-Base beats Billionaires

Investment Rating - The report indicates a long position on Main Street and a short position on Wall Street until there is a policy pivot to address affordability, as reflected in the performance of Bro Billionaires compared to small caps [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights peak positioning, peak liquidity, and peak inequality, suggesting a cautious outlook on high-flying assets like big tech and cryptocurrencies, while favoring small-cap and emerging market investments [1][2][16]. - A significant loss in the crypto market, amounting to $2 trillion, is noted, which represents 10% of US consumer spending, indicating a shift in Wall Street's focus from AI spenders to beneficiaries in manufacturing and services [3][10]. - The report anticipates key price levels for frothy assets to hold, with specific targets for big tech (XLK at $133), bitcoin (at $58,000), and gold (at $4,550 per ounce), contingent on the US dollar not surging [2][15]. Summary by Sections Market Flows - Weekly flows show $87.2 billion to cash, $34.6 billion to stocks, and $23.0 billion to bonds, with notable outflows from gold and crypto [10][46]. - Cumulative inflows for the decade to date are reported as $5.0 trillion to cash, $3.0 trillion to stocks, and $2.4 trillion to bonds, with gold and crypto receiving $128 billion and $98 billion respectively [12][34]. Positioning and Sentiment - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.6, indicating a contrarian "sell signal" for risk assets, with strong inflows to tech and high-yield bond funds, while cash levels remain low [13][14]. - Positioning metrics suggest that a reversal in the Bull & Bear Indicator sell signal could occur with increased cash levels and significant outflows from stocks [14]. Sector Performance - The report notes inflows into tech ($6.0 billion), energy ($4.0 billion), and materials ($0.7 billion), while outflows were observed in consumer, utilities, healthcare, and real estate sectors [47]. - The report emphasizes a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks as favorable investments in the lead-up to the US midterms, driven by political interventions aimed at reducing costs in energy, healthcare, and housing [16][24].